Hurricane season officially begins June 1st but activity doesn’t really get going until the Atlantic and Caribbean waters warm significantly over 80 degrees. Two areas that hurricane watchers keep an eye on are the Caribbean Ocean and the west coast of Africa. Tropical thunderstorms develop near the Azores in clusters and get caught up in the easterly trade winds. Sometimes these thunderstorms will create their own low pressure system and gather strength feeding on the warm tropical water as they take the long journery eastward across the Atlantic Ocean. Depending on upper air systems, these storms will either fall apart from upper wind shear or gather strength with the right upper air dynamics.  This year the probability of a hurricane making landfall are 3, and named storms 16 which is higher than a normal year. We are definitely in a high cycle of activity.

A new named storm Dorian in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean has recently strengthened into tropical storm which is a week away from any threat to coastal areas of the United States.

Yesterday was the second day in the last 14 that the temperature did not go over 90 degrees. So far this month Hartford is experiencing its hottest month ever since the Weather Service officially started recording temperatures in 1905. We are averaging 80.5 degrees this July, some 7 degrees above normal and warmer than coastal Florida. The heat will finally subside the next week or so with more seasonable conditions. No more 90 degree days through the last week of July and into early August. The average high and low temperature for this date is 85 and 63. Unfortunately humidity will creep back in later today and tonight as warm front will push through the state from south to north. Some tropical showers will pour down on us before the next cold front ushers in its refreshing air mass tomorrow night.

Feeling unusually warm this summer? Through the mid point of this month we are on pace to break the all time record average temperature for July. In 2010, Hartford officially had an average temperature of 77.4 degrees in July, not including today we are at 79.8 degrees with four more days of 90’s coming up. Our fifth heat wave this summer is well under way and may finish with a consecutive string of seven 90+ degree days on Saturday. The record is ten days in 1995.  A heat wave is when we have at least three consecutive days at 90 degrees and over. The heat will be turned off temporarily on Sunday as a cooler dryer Canadian air mass finally pushes out the oppressive heat. Maybe a solid 3 or 4 days of beautiful summertime weather early next week.

In all the years observing weather, never have I felt a prolonged period of dew point temperatures in the 70’s (11 days),  and it’s just the beginning as Connecticut will kick off the start of a unprecedented 4th heat wave this summer on Sunday.  Dew point is the temperature to which a given parcel of air must be cooled, at constant barometric pressure for water vapor to condense into water. The condensed water is called dew. The dew point is a saturation point. Humidity is at 100% when the air temperature and dew point are equal. When the dew point reaches 70 degrees it’s very tropical feeling and uncomfortable.

Our short lived reprieve will end tomorrow as the cold front will move back over us as warm front. Tempertaures will look like this for the next six days starting this weekend… Sunday 91, Monday 94, Tuesday 96, Wednesday 97, Thursday 95 and Friday 90.

Just think, six months today we’ll be talking about how cold it is outside, so let’s enjoy summertime at its extreme for now.

Pre 4th of July weekend is here with the 3 S’s on the forefront weatherwise for the weekend. Sun, Showers and Steamy conditions will prevail for the next several days. Yes, many will be able to get in their barbeques, see a ball game or two, get in a round of golf, take a dip in the pool, but the threat will always be there on the western horizon. A huge trough of low pressure will be hanging aroung the eastern portion of the country with its frontal boundary stalling out offshore as small ripples along the front will bring periods of rain and thunder our way. Then it will clear out, the sun will shine and the steam will rise from the surfaces.

Bad hair days will stay for awhile.

Central Connecticut has just seen its second heat wave of the season. 3 days of temeratures 90 degrees and over is a heat wave. That persistent pattern has come to an abrupt end today as clouds dominated,  but the nagging humidity did not go away. Over the next week or so, a constant threat of showers everyday, some heavy causing flooding of lowline areas. Also, thunderstorms will be around for good measure too.

A wet pattern is very typical for New England this time of year as changeable weather conditions stall creating a roadblock in weather systems.  Unfortunately vacation season has begun and many will need to be creative to handle the wet and humid days the lie ahead.

Here’s a weather update for the 4th of July and Four activities  likely will be appropriate.

1) Go to the movies

2) Catch up on indoor chores

3) A stroll through the mall

4) A picnic under a tent or in a enclosed patio

Get the drift? Yes, right now it looks like we will be in a very wet pattern for the Holiday week that begins this weekend. We may squeeze out one good day on Saturday but after that there will be a threat of rain showers for several days next week. Remember the weather pattern we were in from the of May through early June. “Ditto”

The hazy, sultry days of summertime has arrived in New England, temporarily. A Bermuda high pressure is lingering off our southeast coast and is creating a ridge in the atmosphere pumping humid tropical air clockrise into our region signaling a brief 4 day heat wave here. The configuration in the ridge will abruptly change at the end of the week as a dip in the jet stream will give us a sustained period of inclement and wet conditions like we had in early June through the 4th of July holiday. Use your movie passes next week!

In the news, the new word of the day is “Derecho”, derived from Spanish, meaning straight.  A long line of thunderstorms moved out the Midwest yesterday with straight line winds blowing outward from these clustered storms extending over 200 miles. This line of super cells follow a frontal boundaries separating cooler and moist tropical air. We were spared the wrath of a “Derecho” as it slid down a frontal boundary to our south. Unfortunately New England will be in the stable cooler air mass with rain heavy at times through early Friday morning. Can we withstand another 2″ of rain in our already super saturation ground.

Here we go again…another round of rain showers today, some quite heavy with lightning and thunder for good measure. Tomorrow will be the sweet filling of an oreo cookie as sunshine will the rule day with mild temperatures for June. Thursday will see a thickening and lowering cloud deck followed by another burst of heavy showers. Lowline flooding is a possibilty late Thursday into Friday. Then we save the best for last as this weekend will turn out brillant! Father’s Day will be near perfect wth abundant sunshine, low humidity and near normal temperatures of 79 degrees. Hopefully we can keep the string of nice days for early next week too. Stay tuned.